August 20, 2010 - The Wall Street Journal
Social Security Cuts Weighed by Panel
A White House-created commission is considering proposals to raise the
retirement age and take other steps to shore up the finances of Social Security,
prompting key players to prepare for a major battle over the program's
future.
The panel is looking for a mix of ideas that could win support from both
parties, including concessions from liberals who traditionally oppose benefit
cuts and from Republicans who generally oppose higher taxes, according to one
member of the commission and several people familiar with its deliberations.
In addition to raising the retirement age, which is now set to reach age 67
in 2027, specific cuts under consideration include lowering benefits for
wealthier retires and trimming annual cost-of-living increases, perhaps only for
wealthier retirees, people familiar with the talks said.
On the tax side, the leading idea is to increase the share of earned income
that is subject to Social Security taxes, officials said. Under current law,
income beyond $106,000 is exempt. Another idea is to increase the tax rate
itself, said a Democrat on the commission.
Even before the commission settles on a plan, many liberals are vowing to
block any cut in retirement benefits. But the White House and the powerful
senior group AARP appear open to a deal.
Republicans on the commission have mostly held their fire. One of them, Rep.
Jeb Hensarling (R., Texas) said Thursday he opposes tax increases but wouldn't
rule anything out at this stage in the discussions. Otherwise, he said, "the
thing blows up before it has a chance to work."
The commission's Social Security proposals would face an uncertain reception
in Congress, which would have to approve changes to the program. But some
commissioners were optimistic.
"Are Republicans willing to sign onto a tax increase, and are Democrats ready
to sign onto a benefit cut? I think the answer is probably yes in both cases if
the other is willing to do it," said Alice Rivlin, a Democrat and former White
House budget director. Some have suggested raising the retirement age to as high
as 70, but Ms. Rivlin said she doubts there is support on the commission to go
that high.
Some in the White House view a deal on Social Security as a
confidence-building measure that could prepare the political system to tackle
even tougher fiscal questions, such as the federal government's budget deficit.
Asked about Social Security on Wednesday, President Barack Obama hinted of
coming changes, saying: "We're going to have to make some modest adjustments in
order to strengthen it."
The 18-member National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform is
charged with generating solutions to address medium- and long-term fiscal
problems. To be endorsed by the panel, an idea must garner 14 votes.
The commission includes 12 members of Congress, six Democrats and six
Republicans appointed by congressional leaders, plus four non-lawmakers chosen
by the White House. The White House also appointed the co-chairmen, Democrat
Erskine Bowles, a former White House chief of staff, and Alan Simpson, a retired
GOP senator. The group is to issue its report by Dec. 1.
The Congressional Budget Office underscored the challenge Thursday,
forecasting that the federal government's budget deficit for this fiscal year
would total $1.34 trillion. That is slightly less than previous projections as a
result of lower-than-expected spending on the Troubled Asset Relief Program
financial rescue. The deficit will fall to just over $1 trillion in 2011, due to
lower stimulus spending, the office said. But the deficit would grow if Congress
extended the Bush tax cuts.
Social Security officials project that beginning in 2014, the program will
routinely pay out more in benefits than it collects in taxes, requiring it to
draw on reserves that have been funding the rest of the government. By 2037, the
reserves would be depleted and the program would only be able to pay about 75%
of promised benefits.
The U.S. is facing the same demographic trends that are at play in most other
parts of the world: life expectancies have lengthened while fertility rates have
fallen, leaving countries with a shrinking proportion of young workers to help
support elderly residents.
The problem is particularly acute in Europe. Germany raised its retirement
age by two years, to age 67. In France, President Nicolas Sarkozy has proposed
raising the retirement age to 62, up two years. According to the World Bank,
Hungary has raised its retirement age, while Poland has moved to reduce
incentives for early retirement, and other nations have changed the way benefits
are calculated.
In the U.S., this election year's political debate on Social Security has
been dominated by Democratic attacks on Republicans who support individual
private accounts that could be invested in stocks, an idea that President George
W. Bush pushed unsuccessfully in 2005. But many predict any 2011 debate on
Social Security will focus on the issue of benefit cuts and tax increases.
Liberal Democrats are already organizing to head off any proposal that cuts
Social Security benefits, including any plan to raise the retirement age. They
argue the program's finances can be fixed with tax increases alone and that
benefit cuts would harm low-income seniors who have little savings.
"People would rather pay more or have revenue raised than cut the benefits,"
said Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D., Ill.), a commission member. She said she was
fairly confident a proposal that included benefit cuts would not garner the
needed 14 votes.
Many liberals are particularly opposed to any plan that would link cuts in
Social Security to deficit reduction. They say that because the retirement
program has long run a surplus, it is not to blame for the budget deficit. The
commission's mandate is to examine ways to balance the budget and to address the
growth of entitlement programs.
Outside the commission, Moveon.org, the Campaign for America's Future and
other liberal groups are pressuring candidates for Congress to promise not to
support benefit cuts, posting name-by-name results on a website. A coalition of
125 groups, called Strengthen Social Security, calls for closing the shortfall
with tax increases alone. But others are open to the conversation, including the
powerful senior group AARP.
"We're prepared to be quite supportive of a real engagement on the issue,"
said John Rother, director of public policy for AARP. Acting sooner allows for
changes to be made gradually, he said, and will reassure younger workers that
the program will be there for them. He dismisses those who said they can never
support benefit cuts. "I know all these people personally and they'll say we
have to be hard line now to influence the debate...I kind of take it with a
grain of salt, these emphatic statements."
—John
McKinnon contributed to this article.
Write to Laura Meckler at laura.meckler@wsj.com
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